When you get there, you will already be there.

Fri Feb 20, 2015 - COL (4) - CHI (1)

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The Intro and First 30 games I hope explain this project. Here is the individual game data:

Notes:

- Hawks won the Primary Attempts and that is about the only thing they won.  Hawks lost the Secondary and Outside Attempts which made them even for overall attempts with the Avs.

- Hawks won the Primary Attempts in the 1st but were even in both Quality and overall attempts.  Hawks lost the Quality chances in the 2nd though they did get more overall attempts in that period.  And the Hawks lost the 3rd in every way this project measures it.

-  Lot of red in the shots categories as well.  Hawks had one less Primary chance then they are used to but allowed 2 less than normal.  And again that is the good news. 

- Hawks typically generate 1 more secondary shot and 2 more outside shots  than their opponents.  So this game they were -4 and -5 from their norm in these two categories.

- The expected 5o5 goals were 1.52 vs 1.6 so the 1 goal for and 2 against didn’t meet the expectations.  In fact the Hawks two goals given up were both outside the Home Plate area.  When all the Quality Chances Against were defended, you are hoping for a win in those games. 

- As such the Hawks were 7 points higher in Expected Save Percentage than the Avs.  So the -15 points from Crow and the 24 points higher from the Avs goalie numbers were disappointing.


Defense creating attempts against in the HP area

- Seabrook was -2 this game and that was without counting the turnover that directly led to the goal against.  Oduya was also -2.  One of those plays for Oduya was when he was beaten with an area pass, so I was surprised there wasn’t more whining about that play.

- I had Saad as a -3.  One of the plays he was a winger that couldn’t reach the guy in the far high slot.  The other two plays he was F1 low covering for a center.

- I had Kruger, Hossa and Smith as the only other negative plays.  Hossa and Smith as F1 covering for the center plays.


Offense creating attempts for in the HP area

- Not much going on offensively.  I didn’t have any net front presence plays as Saad won a loose puck for a rebound attempt but it was further out in the Home Plate area.  Hartman brought a puck out in front of the net from behind the goal line.

-  All the remaining positive plays were from passes.  Richards had a good offensive game as he created a couple of scoring chances and was part of a give and go with Kane for a third.

- Hossa, Bickell and Kruger were the others that generated attempts with passes.

Pretty discouraging game from the eye test and from this analysis.

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